Futures Wheel

So geht's

1. 1

   Write the central trend, event, or decision in a circle in the middle of a large sheet of paper or whiteboard.

2. 2

   Individually or as a group, brainstorm direct first-order consequences: What are the immediate, predictable impacts of this event? Write each consequence in a circle radiating from the centre.

3. 3

   Connect each first-order consequence to the centre with a line. Use '+' or '–' to mark whether each consequence is positive or negative for your organisation.

4. 4

   For each first-order consequence, now ask: 'If this happens, what happens next?' These are second-order consequences — place them in circles radiating from the first-order nodes.

5. 5

   Extend to third-order consequences for the most strategically important branches.

6. 6

   Step back and look at the full wheel. Identify recurring themes, surprising connections, and cascades you hadn't anticipated.

7. 7

   Mark the 3–5 most strategically important nodes — these represent your early warning signals or leverage points.

8. 8

   Discuss: What proactive responses do these consequences suggest? What should you monitor? What should you do now?

Tipps

• The most valuable insights come from second and third-order consequences — push teams to go deep rather than wide.

• Colour-code positive vs negative consequences to quickly see the net impact direction.

• Avoid letting the wheel become purely negative — futures thinking requires seeing opportunities as well as threats.

• Timebox each ring of the wheel to keep energy high.

Variationen

Run a 'Positive Futures Wheel' where the central prompt is an aspiration ('we have achieved net zero by 2030') and the wheel maps the beneficial cascade. Combine the output with a Scenario Planning 2x2 by populating each scenario with relevant second-order effects from the wheel.