Scenario Planning
A strategic planning method developed at Royal Dutch Shell that helps organisations prepare for multiple possible futures. Rather than predicting the future, scenario planning constructs three to four plausible, distinct 'futures' based on two key uncertainties. Teams then develop strategies that are robust across all scenarios, identifying early warning signals for each.
Comment l'animer
- 1
Identify the decision or strategy being planned.
- 2
Brainstorm all forces and uncertainties that could significantly affect this decision over the time horizon.
- 3
Select two key uncertainties — the most impactful and most uncertain — to form the axes of a 2x2 matrix.
- 4
Name and develop each of the four scenario quadrants into coherent narratives.
- 5
For each scenario: describe what the world looks like, what challenges and opportunities exist, and what early warning signals would tell you this scenario is emerging.
- 6
Test your current strategy against all four scenarios — where does it fail?
- 7
Identify strategic moves that perform well across all or most scenarios ('robust strategies').
- 8
Define early warning indicators to monitor.
Conseils
The best scenarios are plausible, not probable.
Each scenario should be internally consistent and distinct from the others.
Avoid 'optimistic/pessimistic' framing — that collapses the exploration.
Variantes
Run a simplified '3 Scenarios' version (expected, better, worse) for shorter workshops. Combine with Pre-Mortem to stress-test specific scenarios.
Contextes d'utilisation
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