Scenario Planning

Comment l'animer

1. 1

   Identify the decision or strategy being planned.

2. 2

   Brainstorm all forces and uncertainties that could significantly affect this decision over the time horizon.

3. 3

   Select two key uncertainties — the most impactful and most uncertain — to form the axes of a 2x2 matrix.

4. 4

   Name and develop each of the four scenario quadrants into coherent narratives.

5. 5

   For each scenario: describe what the world looks like, what challenges and opportunities exist, and what early warning signals would tell you this scenario is emerging.

6. 6

   Test your current strategy against all four scenarios — where does it fail?

7. 7

   Identify strategic moves that perform well across all or most scenarios ('robust strategies').

8. 8

   Define early warning indicators to monitor.

Conseils

• The best scenarios are plausible, not probable.

• Each scenario should be internally consistent and distinct from the others.

• Avoid 'optimistic/pessimistic' framing — that collapses the exploration.

Variantes

Run a simplified '3 Scenarios' version (expected, better, worse) for shorter workshops. Combine with Pre-Mortem to stress-test specific scenarios.