Transition Model Canvas
The Transition Model Canvas is a one-page canvas for analysing a socio-technical transition, such as the shift from fossil-fuel to zero-emission mobility. It was developed by Frank van Rijnsoever and Jip Leendertse at the Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, and published in 2020; it builds on the Multi-Level Perspective from transition studies. Groups set a transition goal, map the established system on one side and the emerging niche system on the other, each with its key elements, strengths, vulnerabilities and strategies, and then test the picture against wider landscape developments.
Facilitation script
- 1
Introduce transitions and the landscape, incumbent and niche levels with one worked example, then hand out the canvas and form groups of three to five.
15 min - 2
Groups define their transition goal with a short-term milestone and a long-term vision. Hear each goal in plenary and tighten any that are too broad.
20 min - 3
Groups map the incumbent system: actors, institutions, infrastructure and their interactions, then strengths and vulnerabilities, then the strategies that keep it in place.
40 min - 4
Groups map the niche system: what exists and what is missing, strengths, vulnerabilities and uncertainties, niche strategies, and strategic resources present and absent.
40 min - 5
Groups add landscape trends and shocks and revise both sides of the canvas where these change the balance.
15 min - 6
Groups swap canvases and give written or spoken feedback, then reflect in plenary on the main openings for change and the next steps.
20 min
Tips
Spend real time on the goal: a vague goal such as a sustainable food system gives a canvas full of generalities, while a bounded one gives named actors and rules.
Push groups to be specific in the incumbent column, because people who favour the new system tend to describe the old one as a caricature and underestimate why it holds.
Use one sticky-note colour per element type so that gaps, such as a niche with technology but no supporting institutions, show at a glance.
Common pitfalls
Leaving the transition goal vague: every later field stays abstract and groups cannot agree which actors belong on the canvas
Rushing the incumbent side: the group underestimates the established system's strengths and ends with strategies that would not survive its response
Listing only technologies and companies and forgetting institutions such as regulation, standards and habits, which are often what actually blocks change
Treating the landscape step as an afterthought once time is short: the analysis then ignores the outside pressures that most often open a window for change
Ending with a full canvas and no conclusion: without the feedback and reflection round, the group has a description of two systems but no view on where to act
Variations
On the Transition Makers Toolbox the same workshop is published under the name Mapping the Maze. With participants new to transition thinking, send a short explainer in advance and plan for the full three hours. With experts who share a case, one group can fill a single canvas in about two hours; with a mixed audience, let each group take a different transition and compare the patterns. Remotely, give each group its own copy of the canvas on a shared whiteboard and run the peer feedback as written comments before the plenary.
Where it fits
When to use it
A group works on a system-level change, for example in energy, mobility, food or health, and needs a shared picture of what holds the current system in place
Innovators or policy makers focus on the new solution and have not yet analysed how the established system will respond
Stakeholders from the old and the new system are in the same room and need a neutral structure to lay out both sides
You want to identify which missing resources or institutions are holding an emerging alternative back
Students or professionals are learning transition theory and need to apply it to a real case
When not to use it
The question is about one organisation's offer and revenue: use the Business Model Canvas or Lean Canvas instead
The group needs a creative picture of possible futures, not an analysis of system dynamics: Three Horizons Mapping or Scenario Planning fits better
You have less than two hours or participants have no knowledge of the system in question; the canvas then fills with guesses, so start with a Stakeholder Map or expert input
The change is internal to a team or company without an incumbent and a competing alternative; a Force Field Analysis covers driving and restraining forces with far less overhead
Related methods
Frequently asked questions
What is Transition Model Canvas?▾
The Transition Model Canvas is a one-page tool for analysing a socio-technical transition, developed by Frank van Rijnsoever and Jip Leendertse at Utrecht University. It places the established system and the emerging niche system side by side, each with its key elements, strengths, vulnerabilities and strategies, under a shared transition goal and against the background of wider landscape developments. It is based on the Multi-Level Perspective used in transition research.
How is it different from the Business Model Canvas?▾
The Transition Model Canvas borrows the one-page layout idea but analyses something else. The Business Model Canvas describes how a single organisation creates and captures value, while the Transition Model Canvas describes how a whole system, with its actors, rules and infrastructure, might be replaced by another. Use the first for a venture and the second for a sector-level change.
How long does a Transition Model Canvas workshop take?▾
Plan two to three hours. Mapping the incumbent system and the niche system takes around 40 minutes each, and the goal definition, landscape step, peer feedback and reflection fill the rest. Groups new to transition thinking need the longer version.
Who should take part?▾
The canvas needs people who know the system in question: for example policy makers, innovators, researchers, incumbent companies or students who have studied the case. A typical workshop has 12 to 25 participants in groups of three to five. Mixing people from the established and the emerging side gives a more honest canvas than either side alone.
What does the group have at the end?▾
Each group has a completed canvas showing both systems, the pressures on them and the strategies in play, plus feedback from another group. The practical output is a short list of points where the established system is vulnerable and of resources the niche still lacks. These points are the starting material for strategy or experiment design in a follow-up session.
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Try it freeMethod descriptions on Workshop Weaver are original content written by our team, based on established facilitation practices. This method was inspired by work from Frank van Rijnsoever and Jip Leendertse, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University (2020).