Three Horizons Mapping
Three Horizons Mapping is a futures method in which a group charts a system as three overlapping curves over time: the current way of doing things that is losing its fit (Horizon 1), the future the group wants to see emerge (Horizon 3) and the innovations in between that respond to the pressure for change (Horizon 2). The practice was developed by Bill Sharpe, Anthony Hodgson and Andrew Curry and is taught by H3Uni and the International Futures Forum. It is a different framework from the McKinsey growth-portfolio model of the same name: this one is used for a conversation about system change, not for sorting a business portfolio.
Facilitation script
- 1
Introduce the three horizons on the chart and confirm the scoping statement.
10 min - 2
Horizon 1: collect signs of strain and declining fit in the current system.
25 min - 3
Horizon 3: collect elements of the desired future and examples of it that already exist.
25 min - 4
Horizon 2: collect real innovations responding to the pressure for change.
25 min - 5
Tell and record the story of the map from Horizon 1 through Horizon 2 to Horizon 3.
20 min - 6
Name the tensions and pathways the map shows and agree what happens with it next, such as an action-planning session.
15 min
Tips
Keep the order Horizon 1, Horizon 3, Horizon 2; groups that go to innovations too early list projects they already like instead of responses to a real pressure.
Treat the three horizons as voices that all exist in the present, and stop the group from treating Horizon 1 as the enemy, since much of it keeps things running and will continue in a changed role.
The spoken story at the end is the test of the map: if the group cannot tell it, the notes are not yet connected.
Common pitfalls
Reading the horizons as short, medium and long term in sequence, which hides the fact that all three are present today and loses the overlap the chart is about
Filling Horizon 2 with the group's own wish list instead of innovations that actually exist, so the middle of the map has no grounding
Treating Horizon 1 as simply bad, which alienates the people who keep the current system running and hides what should be carried forward
Not distinguishing innovations that prolong the present system from those that lead towards the third horizon, so every project gets labelled transformative
Skipping the storytelling because time is short, which leaves a wall of notes that nobody can explain a week later
Variations
Three Horizons Action Planning is the second stage described by H3Uni: the finished map is turned into an innovation pathway through six boxes (vision, pockets of the future in the present, sustaining innovations, transformative innovations, what of the first horizon continues, what to decommission), ending with first actions. Three Horizons Multi-Actor Mapping widens the view of a group from one organisation: the group brainstorms actors that could shape the third horizon, votes for three to five, builds one map per actor in break-out groups while role-playing that actor, then combines the transformative Horizon 2 and the Horizon 3 notes on a shared map and looks at where the actors' journeys reinforce or compete with each other. Online, draw the three curves on a shared whiteboard and use coloured notes; plan more time for the storytelling.
Where it fits
When to use it
A group senses that its current model is running out of road but has no shared picture of what should replace it
Defenders of the existing system, innovators and visionaries talk past each other and need one frame that gives each a legitimate place
An organisation has many innovation projects and cannot tell which ones only prop up the present
A multi-stakeholder group needs a shared map of a sector or place before it can agree on joint action
A vision exists already and the group needs a credible account of how to get from here to there
When not to use it
The task is to balance investment between core business, growth businesses and new options; that is the McKinsey Three Horizons Framework
The group needs distinct alternative futures to stress-test a strategy; use Scenario Planning
The vision is fixed and only the route is missing; Backcasting gets there more directly
You have less than 90 minutes, which is the minimum the source gives for a useful conversation
The group knows little about the system under discussion; do research or a Future Trends session first, otherwise Horizon 2 fills with wishes instead of real examples
Related methods
Frequently asked questions
What is Three Horizons Mapping?▾
Three Horizons Mapping is a futures method in which a group maps a system as three overlapping curves: the dominant present that is losing fit, the future the group wants, and the innovations in transition between them. The group fills the map with notes and then tells the story of how change could unfold. It was developed by Bill Sharpe, Anthony Hodgson and Andrew Curry and is taught by H3Uni.
Is this the same as the McKinsey Three Horizons model?▾
No. The McKinsey model from The Alchemy of Growth sorts a company's businesses into core, emerging and future options for portfolio management. Three Horizons Mapping as a futures practice describes patterns of change in a whole system and is used as a dialogue tool. The two share a name and a three-curve picture but answer different questions.
Why is Horizon 3 explored before Horizon 2?▾
Horizon 2 is the space of transition, and an innovation can only be judged once both ends are known: what is failing and what future is wanted. Mapping the third horizon first lets the group ask of each innovation whether it leads towards that future or mainly extends the life of the present system.
How long does a Three Horizons Mapping session take?▾
H3Uni gives 90 minutes to two hours for a useful mapping conversation with around six people. With up to 24 people mapping in parallel groups and a first round of action planning, allow up to three hours. Full action planning or mapping from several actors' perspectives takes a further session of similar length, so plan a half day for the full sequence.
What comes after the map?▾
The usual next step is action planning: the group clusters the third-horizon notes into a vision, identifies examples of that future that exist now, separates sustaining from transformative innovations and decides what to keep and what to stop. That turns the map into a pathway with first actions.
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Try it freeMethod descriptions on Workshop Weaver are original content written by our team, based on established facilitation practices. This method was inspired by work from Bill Sharpe, Anthony Hodgson and Andrew Curry; H3Uni / International Futures Forum.