Futures Wheel
The Futures Wheel was invented by Jerome Glenn in 1971 as a structured brainstorming technique for mapping the second- and third-order consequences of a trend, event, or decision. It begins with a central prompt placed in the middle of the page — this might be a megatrend ('AI replaces knowledge work'), a decision ('we move to a subscription model'), or a scenario ('energy prices double'). From this centre, participants branch out to first-order consequences (direct and immediate impacts), then from each of those to second-order consequences (what happens as a result of the result?), and further out to third-order effects. The power of the Futures Wheel lies in forcing teams to think beyond the obvious. Most people can name the first-order effects of a change; far fewer can trace the cascade through second and third orders. This is precisely where strategic surprises hide. The wheel reveals unexpected interconnections, helps identify leverage points where intervention has maximum effect, and surfaces both threats and opportunities that would otherwise remain invisible. It is fast, visual, and works with any size group — making it one of the most accessible foresight tools available.
How to run it
- 1
Write the central trend, event, or decision in a circle in the middle of a large sheet of paper or whiteboard.
- 2
Individually or as a group, brainstorm direct first-order consequences: What are the immediate, predictable impacts of this event? Write each consequence in a circle radiating from the centre.
- 3
Connect each first-order consequence to the centre with a line. Use '+' or '–' to mark whether each consequence is positive or negative for your organisation.
- 4
For each first-order consequence, now ask: 'If this happens, what happens next?' These are second-order consequences — place them in circles radiating from the first-order nodes.
- 5
Extend to third-order consequences for the most strategically important branches.
- 6
Step back and look at the full wheel. Identify recurring themes, surprising connections, and cascades you hadn't anticipated.
- 7
Mark the 3–5 most strategically important nodes — these represent your early warning signals or leverage points.
- 8
Discuss: What proactive responses do these consequences suggest? What should you monitor? What should you do now?
Tips
The most valuable insights come from second and third-order consequences — push teams to go deep rather than wide.
Colour-code positive vs negative consequences to quickly see the net impact direction.
Avoid letting the wheel become purely negative — futures thinking requires seeing opportunities as well as threats.
Timebox each ring of the wheel to keep energy high.
Variations
Run a 'Positive Futures Wheel' where the central prompt is an aspiration ('we have achieved net zero by 2030') and the wheel maps the beneficial cascade. Combine the output with a Scenario Planning 2x2 by populating each scenario with relevant second-order effects from the wheel.
Where it fits
Frequently asked questions
When should I use Futures Wheel?â–¾
Use Futures Wheel when you want to: Trend impact analysis; Risk and opportunity mapping; Innovation strategy sessions; Policy impact assessment; Technology disruption workshops.
How long does Futures Wheel take?â–¾
Futures Wheel typically takes 45–90 minutes.
How many participants does Futures Wheel work for?â–¾
Futures Wheel works best for groups of 3–20 participants.
What materials do I need for Futures Wheel?â–¾
To run Futures Wheel you will need: Large paper or whiteboard, sticky notes, markers, concentric circle template (optional).
How difficult is Futures Wheel to facilitate?â–¾
Futures Wheel is rated beginner — straightforward to facilitate even without prior experience.
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Try it freeMethod descriptions on Workshop Weaver are original content written by our team, based on established facilitation practices. This method was inspired by work from Jerome Glenn, 'The Futures Wheel' (1971), in Futures Research Methodology.