Uncertainty Map
The Uncertainty Map is a team exercise for laying out what is unknown about a challenge and deciding how to deal with each unknown. Teams write down uncertainties of three kinds, place them on a map that runs from clear through complicated to complex, match a coping strategy to each zone and finish with one small personal experiment. It is the core of the tool Embracing Uncertainty by Nina Bohm (TU Delft) in the Transition Makers Toolbox, which builds on her research on uncertainty in education and on the uncertainty types described by Brugnach and colleagues (2008).
Facilitation script
- 1
Check-in: how does uncertainty feel right now, in words, a drawing or a chosen image card.
10 min - 2
Silent writing of uncertainties on sticky notes using the three prompts.
10 min - 3
Introduce the map, place and cluster the notes in teams without discussing solutions.
30 min - 4
Move from clear to complicated to complex and match coping strategies to each zone.
20 min - 5
Each person draws a metaphor for their relationship with uncertainty and shares it in the team.
10 min - 6
Each person designs one small experiment for the coming week and tells a teammate.
10 min
Tips
Give one colour of sticky note per person so the team can see whose unknowns sit where without having to ask.
Expect disagreement about placement and use it: a note one person calls clear and another calls complex usually means they hold different information.
Keep the complex zone from becoming a dumping ground by asking of each note there whether any amount of research would settle it.
Common pitfalls
Jumping to solutions while placing notes, which stops the sorting and leaves half the notes unplaced
Putting everything uncomfortable in the complex zone, so answerable questions never get researched
Skipping the third prompt about conflicting signals, which misses the unknowns that come from people disagreeing and not from missing data
Treating the check-in and metaphor steps as decoration and rushing them, after which people discuss uncertainty as an abstract topic and not as something they have to live with in the project
Ending without the personal experiment, so the map goes on the wall and nobody changes what they do
Variations
For a project team short on time, run only the writing, mapping and strategy steps in about 45 minutes and skip the metaphor drawing. In a large room, teams work on their own maps and two or three share one surprising placement in plenary. Remotely, draw the three zones on a digital whiteboard and give each person a note colour. The note-writing step, mapping the uncertainties, also works on its own in about ten minutes as a quick opener before a planning session.
Where it fits
When to use it
A team is starting work on an open-ended challenge and the list of unknowns is long and unsorted
People are stuck waiting for certainty that will not come, and need to see which questions are answerable and which are not
Team members hold conflicting information and nobody has said so out loud
You want to deal with the emotional side of not knowing as well as the analytical side
A plan is about to be written and you want research tasks separated from things that can only be handled by adapting
When not to use it
You need future scenarios built from two key drivers: Critical Uncertainties produces a scenario grid, which this map does not
The team needs a list of project risks with owners and countermeasures: run a Premortem
The work is routine and well understood, so most notes will land in the clear zone and the exercise adds little
The group wants to classify the whole situation or decision context: the Cynefin Framework is built for that, while this map sorts individual unknowns
Related methods
Further reading
Frequently asked questions
What is Uncertainty Map?▾
The Uncertainty Map is a team exercise in which people write down what they do not know about a challenge and place each item in one of three zones: clear, complicated or complex. Each zone calls for a different response, from looking up an answer to accepting that something cannot be known in advance. It comes from Nina Bohm's tool Embracing Uncertainty in the Transition Makers Toolbox.
What are the three types of uncertainty?▾
The tool uses three prompts: what we do not know, what is unpredictable about the future, and where we have seen or heard conflicting things. They correspond to incomplete knowledge, unpredictability and multiple perspectives, a distinction the source takes from Brugnach and colleagues (2008).
Is the Uncertainty Map the same as Cynefin?▾
No. The clear, complicated and complex zones resemble Cynefin's domains, but the source does not present the map as a Cynefin tool. Cynefin classifies a situation to guide how to decide and act, while this map sorts a team's individual unknowns and pairs them with coping strategies.
How long does the Uncertainty Map take?▾
The full session is about 90 minutes for teams of four to six. The note-writing and mapping steps alone can be done in 30 to 45 minutes when the reflective parts are left out.
What is the small experiment at the end?▾
Each person picks one uncertainty that will not go away and designs one small thing to try in the coming week to cope with it better, for example a different way of planning or a conversation they have been postponing. It is personal and low-stakes, and it is what turns the map into a change in behaviour.
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Try it freeMethod descriptions on Workshop Weaver are original content written by our team, based on established facilitation practices. This method was inspired by work from Nina Bohm, Transition Makers Toolbox (TU Delft / University of Amsterdam).